National Weather Service Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.